V-Lab
Goldman Sachs Group Inc/The Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
10.51
increased by 0.02
1 Week
10.41
decreased by 0.08
1 Month
9.32
decreased by 1.17
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:37 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 4, 1999 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 235 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1195 | 8.47*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0552 | 12.26*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9419 | 204.89*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0011 | -0.88 |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
235 days
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