V-Lab
Bristol-Myers Squibb Co Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
21.96
increased by 0.77
1 Week
21.28
increased by 0.09
1 Month
23.08
increased by 1.89
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:22 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 442 trading days (~1.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0388 | 9.56*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0472 | 13.55*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9513 | 262.42*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0029 | -2.83*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
442 days
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