V-Lab
Bristol-Myers Squibb Co Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
23.11
increased by 1.88
1 Week
21.88
increased by 0.65
1 Month
22.70
increased by 1.47
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 10:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 450 trading days (~1.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~450 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0378 | 9.55*** |
| αARCH | 0.0471 | 13.55*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9514 | 263.18*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0028 | -2.76*** |
0.998
Persistence450d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0378 | 9.55*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0471 | 13.55*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9514 | 263.18*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0028 | -2.76*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
450 days
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