General Motors Co Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, October 13th, 2026
1 Day
29.84
decreased by 1.50
1 Week
31.98
increased by 0.64
1 Month
30.15
decreased by 1.19
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 12, 2026 at 09:48 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 18, 2010 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 163 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~163 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1596 | 7.56*** |
| αARCH | 0.0695 | 10.05*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9263 | 128.76*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0110 | -2.34** |
0.996
Persistence163d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1596 | 7.56*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0695 | 10.05*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9263 | 128.76*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0110 | -2.34** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
163 days
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