V-Lab
General Motors Co Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026
1 Day
28.50
decreased by 2.00
1 Week
32.01
increased by 1.51
1 Month
31.35
increased by 0.85
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 28, 2026 at 10:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 18, 2010 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 160 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1596 | 7.55*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0698 | 10.04*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9259 | 127.78*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0114 | -2.39** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
160 days
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