V-Lab
Bank of New York Mellon Corp/The Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
34.07
increased by 1.68
1 Week
31.37
decreased by 1.02
1 Month
29.66
decreased by 2.73
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:24 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 13 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.9045 | 10.13*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1174 | 5.36*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8302 | 32.57*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | 0.0148 | 1.91* |
| γ2 | -0.0129 | -1.14 |
| γ3 | 0.0078 | 1.06 |
| γ4 | -0.0182 | -1.93* |
| γ5 | 0.0283 | 1.76* |
| γ6 | -0.0446 | -1.55 |
Persistence:
0.948
Half-life:
13 days
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