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Bank of New York Mellon Corp/The Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

34.07

increased by 1.68

1 Week

31.37

decreased by 1.02

1 Month

29.66

decreased by 2.73

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:24 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Bank of New York Mellon Corp/The ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 13 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

3.9045
10.13***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1174
5.36***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8302
32.57***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=6
γ10.0148
1.91*
γ2-0.0129
-1.14
γ30.0078
1.06
γ4-0.0182
-1.93*
γ50.0283
1.76*
γ6-0.0446
-1.55

Persistence:

0.948

Half-life:

13 days