V-Lab
Bank of New York Mellon Corp/The Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
32.35
increased by 0.67
1 Week
30.66
decreased by 1.02
1 Month
30.47
decreased by 1.21
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:21 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1772 trading days (~7.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 84% more after negative returns
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8155 | 12.13*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0790 | 7.63*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8873 | 162.00*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0666 | 6.31*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1772 days
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