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Bank of New York Mellon Corp/The Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

32.35

increased by 0.67

1 Week

30.66

decreased by 1.02

1 Month

30.47

decreased by 1.21

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:21 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Bank of New York Mellon Corp/The ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1772 trading days (~7.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 84% more after negative returns

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8155
12.13***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0790
7.63***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8873
162.00***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0666
6.31***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1772 days