V-Lab
Bank of New York Mellon Corp/The Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
26.17
increased by 1.24
1 Week
25.99
increased by 1.06
1 Month
26.59
increased by 1.66
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:22 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 665 trading days (~2.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: illiquidity responds almost entirely to negative returns
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2643 | 8.38*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0150 | 13.32*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9536 | 1,111.40*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0608 | 37.00*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
665 days
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