V-Lab
CVS Health Corp Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
19.40
increased by 0.25
1 Week
19.73
increased by 0.58
1 Month
21.29
increased by 2.14
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:56 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1563 trading days (~6.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 97% more after negative returns
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~1563 daysAsymmetry: Illiquidity rises 97% more after negative returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0880 | 1.74* |
| αARCH | 0.0420 | 6.10*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9371 | 127.27*** |
| γleverage | 0.0408 | 3.50*** |
1.000
Persistence1563d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0880 | 1.74* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0420 | 6.10*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9371 | 127.27*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0408 | 3.50*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1563 days
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