V-Lab
CVS Health Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026
1 Day
21.03
decreased by 1.17
1 Week
20.85
decreased by 1.35
1 Month
19.96
decreased by 2.24
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 28, 2026 at 10:29 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 607 trading days (~2.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0611 | 7.97*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0681 | 7.72*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9308 | 111.81*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.0094 | -1.90* |
| γ2 | 0.0190 | 2.16** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
607 days
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