Boston Scientific Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, October 13th, 2026
1 Day
19.07
increased by 2.02
1 Week
16.86
decreased by 0.19
1 Month
19.11
increased by 2.06
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 12, 2026 at 09:43 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 20, 1992 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 138629 trading days (~550.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~138629 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1533 | 5.90*** |
| αARCH | 0.0719 | 15.69*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9281 | 202.91*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0106 | 1.17 |
1.000
Persistence138629d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1533 | 5.90*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0719 | 15.69*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9281 | 202.91*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0106 | 1.17 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
138629 days
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