Procter & Gamble Co/The Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
7.34
increased by 0.03
1 Week
7.38
increased by 0.07
1 Month
7.27
decreased by 0.04
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 19, 2026 at 09:51 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 637 trading days (~2.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~637 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0192 | 10.24*** |
| αARCH | 0.0371 | 12.14*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9618 | 315.56*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0005 | -0.55 |
0.999
Persistence637d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0192 | 10.24*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0371 | 12.14*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9618 | 315.56*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0005 | -0.55 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
637 days
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