V-Lab
Procter & Gamble Co/The Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
6.85
decreased by 0.10
1 Week
7.12
increased by 0.17
1 Month
7.58
increased by 0.63
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 11:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 634 trading days (~2.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~634 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0189 | 10.21*** |
| αARCH | 0.0373 | 12.15*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9616 | 313.83*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0006 | -0.61 |
0.999
Persistence634d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0189 | 10.21*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0373 | 12.15*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9616 | 313.83*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0006 | -0.61 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
634 days
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