PubMatic Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, October 15th, 2026
1 Day
1,905.59
increased by 506.40
1 Week
1,469.30
increased by 70.11
1 Month
1,535.07
increased by 135.88
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 14, 2026 at 10:06 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 9, 2020 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 22 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1556 | 10.39*** |
| αARCH | 0.0922 | 7.03*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8764 | 47.82*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0984 | -4.91*** |
0.969
Persistence22d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1556 | 10.39*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0922 | 7.03*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8764 | 47.82*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0984 | -4.91*** |
Persistence:
0.969
Half-life:
22 days
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