PubMatic Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, November 5th, 2026
1 Day
3,019.10
decreased by 133.91
1 Week
2,890.00
decreased by 263.01
1 Month
2,238.25
decreased by 914.76
Analysis last updated: Thursday, November 5, 2026 at 04:38 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 9, 2020 to Oct 30, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 18 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2114 | 11.11*** |
| αARCH | 0.0928 | 6.85*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8701 | 43.88*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0799 | -4.29*** |
0.963
Persistence18d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2114 | 11.11*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0928 | 6.85*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8701 | 43.88*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0799 | -4.29*** |
Persistence:
0.963
Half-life:
18 days
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