Neostellar Capital Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026
1 Day
12,075.79
decreased by 1,445.13
1 Week
13,675.90
increased by 154.98
1 Month
10,308.54
decreased by 3,212.38
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 31, 2026 at 02:20 AM UTC
Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 28, 2011 to Oct 30, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 263 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~263 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2645 | 6.11*** |
| αARCH | 0.1686 | 17.33*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8287 | 86.03*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0095 | -1.04 |
0.997
Persistence263d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2645 | 6.11*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1686 | 17.33*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8287 | 86.03*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0095 | -1.04 |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
263 days
Other Neostellar Capital Corp Analyses
Other Spline ILLIQ Analyses on Equities