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Neostellar Capital Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026

1 Day

12,075.79

decreased by 1,445.13

1 Week

13,675.90

increased by 154.98

1 Month

10,308.54

decreased by 3,212.38

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 31, 2026 at 02:20 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/30/2024

to

10/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Neostellar Capital Corp ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 28, 2011 to Oct 30, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 263 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~263 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.2645
6.11***
αARCH0.1686
17.33***
βGARCH0.8287
86.03***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0095
-1.04

0.997

Persistence

263d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2645
6.11***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1686
17.33***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8287
86.03***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0095
-1.04

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

263 days