V-Lab
Neostellar Capital Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, August 13th, 2026
1 Day
10,939.54
decreased by 999.52
1 Week
13,082.22
increased by 1,143.16
1 Month
11,331.52
decreased by 607.54
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 12, 2026 at 09:17 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 28, 2011 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 264 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2696 | 6.13*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1688 | 17.22*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8286 | 85.36*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0108 | -1.10 |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
264 days
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