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Neostellar Capital Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, August 13th, 2026

1 Day

10,939.54

decreased by 999.52

1 Week

13,082.22

increased by 1,143.16

1 Month

11,331.52

decreased by 607.54

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 12, 2026 at 09:17 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Neostellar Capital Corp ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 28, 2011 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 264 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2696
6.13***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1688
17.22***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8286
85.36***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0108
-1.10

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

264 days