Neostellar Capital Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Thursday, July 23rd, 2026
1 Day
11,119.38
increased by 2,321.18
1 Week
8,898.54
increased by 100.34
1 Month
7,278.51
decreased by 1,519.69
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 22, 2026 at 09:16 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 28, 2011 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 251 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2805 | 6.18*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1684 | 17.17*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8288 | 85.13*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0125 | -1.19 |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
251 days
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