V-Lab
LQR House Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026
1 Day
987,101.60
increased by 94,397.70
1 Week
871,271.66
decreased by 21,432.24
1 Month
713,299.35
decreased by 179,404.55
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 15, 2026 at 09:18 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 10, 2023 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 78 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~78 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.4415 | 4.21*** |
| αARCH | 0.2906 | 8.38*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7006 | 19.81*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.1725 | 0.80 |
0.991
Persistence78d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4415 | 4.21*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2906 | 8.38*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7006 | 19.81*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.1725 | 0.80 |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
78 days
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