V-Lab
LQR House Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 3rd, 2026
1 Day
397,301.90
decreased by 6,930.50
1 Week
414,001.67
increased by 9,769.27
1 Month
1,657,150.85
increased by 1,252,918.45
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 31, 2026 at 10:15 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 10, 2023 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 6729 trading days (~26.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1604 | 4.07*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3749 | 8.12*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6250 | 13.54*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -5.3686 | -4.21*** |
| γ2 | 8.3606 | 4.72*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
6729 days
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