V-Lab
Howmet Aerospace Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
27.72
increased by 2.82
1 Week
26.66
increased by 1.76
1 Month
25.05
increased by 0.15
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 10:45 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1819 trading days (~7.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1046 | 5.74*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0696 | 15.90*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9300 | 215.68*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0032 | -1.50 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1819 days
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