Howmet Aerospace Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Liquidity prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
27.06
decreased by 1.12
1 Week
26.28
decreased by 1.90
1 Month
26.31
decreased by 1.87
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:01 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 173286 trading days (~687.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0955 | 5.44*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0711 | 0.34 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9289 | 4.39*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0080 | -0.19 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
173286 days
Other Howmet Aerospace Inc Analyses
Other Spline ILLIQ Analyses on Equities