V-Lab
Howmet Aerospace Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026
1 Day
26.10
decreased by 0.07
1 Week
26.66
increased by 0.49
1 Month
25.58
decreased by 0.59
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 28, 2026 at 10:39 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 231049 trading days (~916.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0957 | 5.49*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0709 | 0.37 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9291 | 4.86*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0080 | -0.21 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
231049 days
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