V-Lab
Howmet Aerospace Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
21.09
decreased by 0.32
1 Week
21.83
increased by 0.42
1 Month
24.74
increased by 3.33
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 11:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 231049 trading days (~916.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~231049 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0953 | 5.40*** |
| αARCH | 0.0708 | 0.31 |
| βGARCH | 0.9292 | 4.05*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0082 | -0.18 |
1.000
Persistence231049d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0953 | 5.40*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0708 | 0.31 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9292 | 4.05*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0082 | -0.18 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
231049 days
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