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Howmet Aerospace Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026

1 Day

26.10

decreased by 0.07

1 Week

26.66

increased by 0.49

1 Month

25.58

decreased by 0.59

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 28, 2026 at 10:39 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Howmet Aerospace Inc ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 28, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 231049 trading days (~916.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0957
5.49***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0709
0.37
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9291
4.86***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0080
-0.21

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

231049 days