V-Lab
Ford Motor Co Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
22.95
increased by 0.74
1 Week
22.09
decreased by 0.12
1 Month
21.57
decreased by 0.64
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 10:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 702 trading days (~2.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0755 | 6.64*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0726 | 17.20*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9264 | 222.32*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0014 | -1.08 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
702 days
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