V-Lab
Ford Motor Co Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026
1 Day
26.14
increased by 0.51
1 Week
26.33
increased by 0.70
1 Month
27.23
increased by 1.60
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 09:41 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 707 trading days (~2.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~707 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0753 | 6.64*** |
| αARCH | 0.0726 | 17.23*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9265 | 222.71*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0013 | -1.03 |
0.999
Persistence707d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0753 | 6.64*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0726 | 17.23*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9265 | 222.71*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0013 | -1.03 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
707 days
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