V-Lab
Genesis Healthcare Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
733,050,300,000,000.00
1 Week
862,962,600,000,000.00
1 Month
1,698,672,988,888,889.00
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 09:27 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 15, 2007 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 693147 trading days (~2750.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0471 | |
| αARCH | 0.2903 | |
| βGARCH | 0.7097 |
| γ1 | -9.2443 | |
| γ2 | 14.8670 | |
| γ3 | -2.3378 | |
| γ4 | 2.3997 | |
| γ5 | -14.9662 | |
| γ6 | 28.4782 | |
| γ7 | -38.5625 |
1.000
Persistence693147d
Half-lifeILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0471 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2903 | |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7097 |
| γ1 | -9.2443 | |
| γ2 | 14.8670 | |
| γ3 | -2.3378 | |
| γ4 | 2.3997 | |
| γ5 | -14.9662 | |
| γ6 | 28.4782 | |
| γ7 | -38.5625 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
693147 days
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