V-Lab
Caterpillar Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
6.63
decreased by 0.28
1 Week
7.13
increased by 0.22
1 Month
7.63
increased by 0.72
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:24 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 567 trading days (~2.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0560 | 6.91*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0537 | 14.29*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9451 | 249.55*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.0065 | -1.76* |
| γ2 | 0.0099 | 1.38 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
567 days
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