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Caterpillar Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

6.63

decreased by 0.28

1 Week

7.13

increased by 0.22

1 Month

7.63

increased by 0.72

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:24 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Caterpillar Inc ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 567 trading days (~2.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0560
6.91***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0537
14.29***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9451
249.55***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ1-0.0065
-1.76*
γ20.0099
1.38

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

567 days