V-Lab
Caterpillar Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
7.77
increased by 0.25
1 Week
7.56
increased by 0.04
1 Month
7.52
unchanged at 0.00
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 542 trading days (~2.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~542 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0572 | 6.94*** |
| αARCH | 0.0535 | 14.27*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9452 | 250.13*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.0066 | -1.85* |
| γ2 | 0.0104 | 1.52 |
0.999
Persistence542d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0572 | 6.94*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0535 | 14.27*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9452 | 250.13*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.0066 | -1.85* |
| γ2 | 0.0104 | 1.52 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
542 days
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