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Caterpillar Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

7.77

increased by 0.25

1 Week

7.56

increased by 0.04

1 Month

7.52

unchanged at 0.00

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:52 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Caterpillar Inc ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 542 trading days (~2.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~542 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.0572
6.94***
αARCH0.0535
14.27***
βGARCH0.9452
250.13***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ1-0.0066
-1.85*
γ20.0104
1.52

0.999

Persistence

542d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0572
6.94***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0535
14.27***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9452
250.13***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ1-0.0066
-1.85*
γ20.0104
1.52

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

542 days