V-Lab
Caterpillar Inc ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
7.84
1 Week
8.09
1 Month
8.30
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 10:16 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 23 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 23 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0506 | 32.99*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9454 | 1,002.50*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0506 | -10.42*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0020 | 244.50*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.04 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9991 | 3,433.41*** |
Persistence:
0.971
Half-life:
23 days
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