V-Lab
Applied Materials Inc ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
9.61
1 Week
10.21
1 Month
9.33
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 09:54 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 2123 trading days (~8.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0806 | 16.13*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9202 | 742.12*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0023 | -0.29 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.03 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9997 | 3,134.00*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
2123 days
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