V-Lab
Applied Materials Inc Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, September 22nd, 2026
1 Day
9.69
1 Week
10.25
1 Month
9.68
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 21, 2026 at 09:19 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.1001 | 1.13 |
| αARCH | 0.0407 | 4.02*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9272 | 228.05*** |
| γleverage | 0.0641 | 1.77* |
1.000
Persistence1386294d
Half-lifeILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1001 | 1.13 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0407 | 4.02*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9272 | 228.05*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0641 | 1.77* |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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