V-Lab
Applied Materials Inc Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
10.91
1 Week
11.46
1 Month
10.60
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 09:54 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 162% more after negative returns
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1084 | 4.78*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0402 | 16.18*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9271 | 892.31*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0653 | 7.12*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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