McDonald's Corp Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
12.48
increased by 0.54
1 Week
11.98
increased by 0.04
1 Month
11.41
decreased by 0.53
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1268 trading days (~5.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 94% more after negative returns
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0315 | 7.21*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0282 | 23.88*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9580 | 1,217.31*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0264 | 12.23*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
1268 days
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