V-Lab
McDonald's Corp Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, September 1st, 2026
1 Day
9.98
decreased by 0.17
1 Week
9.85
decreased by 0.30
1 Month
9.75
decreased by 0.40
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 1, 2026 at 09:50 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1330 trading days (~5.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 91% more after negative returns
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0305 | 1.72* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0284 | 6.00*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9582 | 305.16*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0259 | 2.99*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
1330 days
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