V-Lab
McDonald's Corp Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
9.47
decreased by 0.33
1 Week
9.99
increased by 0.19
1 Month
10.37
increased by 0.57
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 10:21 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1325 trading days (~5.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 92% more after negative returns
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0308 | 6.93*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0283 | 23.96*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9582 | 1,219.03*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0259 | 12.01*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
1325 days
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