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Procter & Gamble Co/The Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

7.13

decreased by 0.03

1 Week

7.40

increased by 0.24

1 Month

7.93

increased by 0.77

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 11:42 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Procter & Gamble Co/The ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 38508 trading days (~152.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 165% more after negative returns

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~38508 daysAsymmetry: Illiquidity rises 165% more after negative returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0168
1.07
αARCH0.0212
5.60***
βGARCH0.9614
323.48***
γleverage0.0349
4.63***

1.000

Persistence

38508d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0168
1.07
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0212
5.60***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9614
323.48***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0349
4.63***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

38508 days