Procter & Gamble Co/The Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026
1 Day
7.46
1 Week
7.71
1 Month
7.55
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 02:07 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 26156 trading days (~103.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 166% more after negative returns
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0170 | 1.08 |
| αARCH | 0.0210 | 5.59*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9615 | 324.73*** |
| γleverage | 0.0348 | 4.63*** |
1.000
Persistence26156d
Half-lifeILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0170 | 1.08 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0210 | 5.59*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9615 | 324.73*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0348 | 4.63*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
26156 days
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