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Procter & Gamble Co/The Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026

1 Day

7.46

decreased by 0.19

1 Week

7.71

increased by 0.06

1 Month

7.55

decreased by 0.10

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 02:07 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/09/2024

to

10/09/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Procter & Gamble Co/The ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 26156 trading days (~103.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 166% more after negative returns

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~26156 daysAsymmetry: Illiquidity rises 166% more after negative returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0170
1.08
αARCH0.0210
5.59***
βGARCH0.9615
324.73***
γleverage0.0348
4.63***

1.000

Persistence

26156d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0170
1.08
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0210
5.59***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9615
324.73***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0348
4.63***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

26156 days