V-Lab
Procter & Gamble Co/The Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
8.01
1 Week
8.07
1 Month
8.28
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:25 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 25672 trading days (~101.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 166% more after negative returns
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0171 | 1.09 |
| αARCH | 0.0210 | 5.58*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9615 | 324.52*** |
| γleverage | 0.0348 | 4.63*** |
1.000
Persistence25672d
Half-lifeILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0171 | 1.09 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0210 | 5.58*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9615 | 324.52*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0348 | 4.63*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
25672 days
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