Procter & Gamble Co/The Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026
1 Day
7.57
1 Week
7.72
1 Month
7.48
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 10:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 30, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 21004 trading days (~83.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 165% more after negative returns
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0171 | 1.09 |
| αARCH | 0.0210 | 5.60*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9616 | 325.19*** |
| γleverage | 0.0347 | 4.62*** |
1.000
Persistence21004d
Half-lifeILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0171 | 1.09 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0210 | 5.60*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9616 | 325.19*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0347 | 4.62*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
21004 days
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