V-Lab
Procter & Gamble Co/The Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026
1 Day
8.31
1 Week
8.32
1 Month
9.00
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 28, 2026 at 10:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 23901 trading days (~94.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 166% more after negative returns
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0172 | 1.10 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0210 | 5.57*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9616 | 324.53*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0348 | 4.64*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
23901 days
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