Johnson & Johnson Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026
1 Day
6.17
decreased by 0.07
1 Week
6.31
increased by 0.07
1 Month
6.15
decreased by 0.09
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 10:19 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 30, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 2179 trading days (~8.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 139% more after negative returns
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~2179 daysAsymmetry: Illiquidity rises 139% more after negative returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0231 | 1.78* |
| αARCH | 0.0257 | 6.52*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9560 | 282.33*** |
| γleverage | 0.0359 | 3.97*** |
1.000
Persistence2179d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0231 | 1.78* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0257 | 6.52*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9560 | 282.33*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0359 | 3.97*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
2179 days
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