Johnson & Johnson ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026
1 Day
6.06
1 Week
5.58
1 Month
5.25
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 01:51 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 36 | |
| αARCH | 0.0579 | 10.38*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8872 | 63.40*** |
| γleverage | -0.0579 | -1.34 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0066 | 1.80* |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0316 | 3.83*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9672 | 117.63*** |
0.916
Persistence8d
Half-lifeILLIQ-MFMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 36 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0579 | 10.38*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8872 | 63.40*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0579 | -1.34 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0066 | 1.80* |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0316 | 3.83*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9672 | 117.63*** |
Persistence:
0.916
Half-life:
8 days
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