V-Lab
Johnson & Johnson Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
6.38
increased by 0.13
1 Week
6.44
increased by 0.19
1 Month
6.62
increased by 0.37
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 10:46 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 491 trading days (~1.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0960 | 8.86*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0445 | 11.42*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9541 | 254.76*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0003 | -0.32 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
491 days
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