Johnson & Johnson Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026
1 Day
5.82
increased by 0.36
1 Week
5.46
decreased by 0.00
1 Month
5.48
increased by 0.02
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 01:53 AM UTC
Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 487 trading days (~1.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~487 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0957 | 8.86*** |
| αARCH | 0.0445 | 11.47*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9540 | 255.57*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0003 | -0.36 |
0.999
Persistence487d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0957 | 8.86*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0445 | 11.47*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9540 | 255.57*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0003 | -0.36 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
487 days
Other Johnson & Johnson Analyses
Other Spline ILLIQ Analyses on Equities