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Johnson & Johnson Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026

1 Day

5.82

increased by 0.36

1 Week

5.46

decreased by 0.00

1 Month

5.48

increased by 0.02

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 01:53 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/09/2024

to

10/09/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Johnson & Johnson ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 487 trading days (~1.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~487 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.0957
8.86***
αARCH0.0445
11.47***
βGARCH0.9540
255.57***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0003
-0.36

0.999

Persistence

487d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0957
8.86***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0445
11.47***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9540
255.57***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0003
-0.36

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

487 days