V-Lab
International Business Machines Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
11.90
increased by 0.40
1 Week
11.29
decreased by 0.21
1 Month
10.29
decreased by 1.21
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 380 trading days (~1.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0566 | 9.59*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0498 | 13.75*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9484 | 255.77*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0019 | -2.34** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
380 days
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