V-Lab
International Business Machines Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
10.47
increased by 0.41
1 Week
10.53
increased by 0.47
1 Month
11.13
increased by 1.07
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 381 trading days (~1.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0566 | 9.59*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0498 | 13.74*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9484 | 255.49*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0019 | -2.29** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
381 days
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