V-Lab
International Business Machines Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
10.63
increased by 0.44
1 Week
10.11
decreased by 0.08
1 Month
9.95
decreased by 0.24
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 10:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 381 trading days (~1.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0565 | 9.59*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0498 | 13.75*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9484 | 255.85*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0019 | -2.34** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
381 days
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