V-Lab
Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026
1 Day
5,892.70
decreased by 523.49
1 Week
6,565.55
increased by 149.36
1 Month
5,538.73
decreased by 877.46
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 09:08 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 7, 2012 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 316 trading days (~1.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~316 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.5703 | 3.59*** |
| αARCH | 0.2360 | 22.36*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7618 | 72.21*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0032 | 0.39 |
0.998
Persistence316d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5703 | 3.59*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2360 | 22.36*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7618 | 72.21*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0032 | 0.39 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
316 days
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