V-Lab
McDonald's Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 3rd, 2026
1 Day
10.24
decreased by 0.02
1 Week
10.24
decreased by 0.02
1 Month
9.65
decreased by 0.61
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 31, 2026 at 10:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 828 trading days (~3.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0374 | 10.48*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0440 | 12.36*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9551 | 274.39*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0012 | -0.87 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
828 days
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