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McDonald's Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

6.03

decreased by 0.22

1 Week

6.08

decreased by 0.17

1 Month

6.68

increased by 0.43

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:25 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/16/2024

to

10/16/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of McDonald's Corp ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 789 trading days (~3.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~789 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.0377
10.48***
αARCH0.0440
12.41***
βGARCH0.9552
275.82***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0017
-1.25

0.999

Persistence

789d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0377
10.48***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0440
12.41***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9552
275.82***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0017
-1.25

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

789 days