V-Lab
McDonald's Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
6.71
decreased by 0.29
1 Week
7.06
increased by 0.06
1 Month
7.63
increased by 0.63
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 11:48 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 792 trading days (~3.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~792 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0378 | 10.49*** |
| αARCH | 0.0439 | 12.38*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9552 | 275.76*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0015 | -1.17 |
0.999
Persistence792d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0378 | 10.49*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0439 | 12.38*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9552 | 275.76*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0015 | -1.17 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
792 days
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