V-Lab
McDonald's Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
8.79
increased by 0.03
1 Week
8.97
increased by 0.21
1 Month
9.12
increased by 0.36
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 10:55 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 808 trading days (~3.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0379 | 10.50*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0438 | 12.36*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9554 | 275.87*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0013 | -0.99 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
808 days
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