V-Lab
Wal-Mart Stores Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
4.41
decreased by 0.05
1 Week
4.55
increased by 0.09
1 Month
4.84
increased by 0.38
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 10:12 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 530 trading days (~2.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0374 | 9.17*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0357 | 11.88*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9629 | 312.14*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0008 | -0.99 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
530 days
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