V-Lab
Vistra Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 3rd, 2026
1 Day
52.97
decreased by 5.63
1 Week
56.32
decreased by 2.28
1 Month
37.98
decreased by 20.62
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 31, 2026 at 11:06 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 4, 2016 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 3136 trading days (~12.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.5331 | 2.88*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1090 | 8.46*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8908 | 67.32*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0111 | 0.14 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
3136 days
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