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Vistra Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Friday, November 13th, 2026

1 Day

38.23

decreased by 2.48

1 Week

40.45

decreased by 0.26

1 Month

31.30

decreased by 9.41

Analysis last updated: Thursday, November 12, 2026 at 10:47 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/12/2024

to

11/12/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Vistra Corp ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 4, 2016 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 3726 trading days (~14.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~3726 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.5108
2.88***
αARCH0.1092
8.47***
βGARCH0.8907
67.66***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0006
-0.01

1.000

Persistence

3726d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.5108
2.88***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1092
8.47***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8907
67.66***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0006
-0.01

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

3726 days