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V-Lab

Vistra Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 3rd, 2026

1 Day

52.97

decreased by 5.63

1 Week

56.32

decreased by 2.28

1 Month

37.98

decreased by 20.62

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 31, 2026 at 11:06 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Vistra Corp ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 4, 2016 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 3136 trading days (~12.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.5331
2.88***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1090
8.46***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8908
67.32***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0111
0.14

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

3136 days