V-Lab
Vistra Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
38.00
decreased by 0.29
1 Week
36.58
decreased by 1.71
1 Month
40.89
increased by 2.60
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 11:12 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 4, 2016 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 3938 trading days (~15.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.5021 | 2.88*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1093 | 8.58*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8905 | 68.44*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0023 | -0.03 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
3938 days
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