V-Lab
AES Corp/VA Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
16.98
increased by 1.63
1 Week
16.24
increased by 0.89
1 Month
17.17
increased by 1.82
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 10:22 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 26, 1991 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 346573 trading days (~1375.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1983 | 1.35 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0739 | 0.06 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9261 | 0.72 |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | 0.0414 | 0.09 |
| γ2 | -0.0904 | -0.03 |
| γ3 | 0.0575 | 0.02 |
| γ4 | -0.0256 | -0.60 |
| γ5 | -0.0238 | -0.02 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
346573 days
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