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V-Lab

AES Corp/VA Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

16.98

increased by 1.63

1 Week

16.24

increased by 0.89

1 Month

17.17

increased by 1.82

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 10:22 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of AES Corp/VA ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 26, 1991 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 346573 trading days (~1375.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.1983
1.35
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0739
0.06
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9261
0.72
γi Spline Coefficients
K=5
γ10.0414
0.09
γ2-0.0904
-0.03
γ30.0575
0.02
γ4-0.0256
-0.60
γ5-0.0238
-0.02

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

346573 days