V-Lab
AES Corp/VA Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026
1 Day
16.52
increased by 0.06
1 Week
17.24
increased by 0.78
1 Month
17.73
increased by 1.27
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 28, 2026 at 10:14 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 26, 1991 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 346573 trading days (~1375.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1921 | 0.46 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0811 | 0.03 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9189 | 0.39 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0103 | -0.02 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
346573 days
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