AES Corp/VA Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
20.90
increased by 0.90
1 Week
20.60
increased by 0.60
1 Month
20.46
increased by 0.46
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:37 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 26, 1991 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 808 trading days (~3.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1957 | 3.39*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0769 | 13.52*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9223 | 171.65*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | -0.0587 | -1.56 |
| γ2 | 0.0968 | 1.73* |
| γ3 | -0.0517 | -1.69* |
| γ4 | -0.0015 | -0.06 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
808 days
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