V-Lab
AES Corp/VA Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
18.61
1 Week
18.82
1 Month
19.16
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:16 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 26, 1991 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 99% more after negative returns
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1934 | 5.32*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0451 | 22.77*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9326 | 684.70*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0447 | 16.20*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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