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V-Lab

AES Corp/VA Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

18.61

decreased by 1.14

1 Week

18.82

decreased by 0.93

1 Month

19.16

decreased by 0.59

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:16 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of AES Corp/VA ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 26, 1991 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 99% more after negative returns

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1934
5.32***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0451
22.77***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9326
684.70***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0447
16.20***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1386294 days