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V-Lab

AES Corp/VA Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

21.88

decreased by 0.96

1 Week

21.90

decreased by 0.94

1 Month

22.45

decreased by 0.39

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:16 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of AES Corp/VA ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 26, 1991 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 100% more after negative returns

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.2498
5.48***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0450
22.13***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9324
676.16***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0450
15.70***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1386294 days