How volatility evolves over time

How illiquidity evolves over time

{name} Model Equation

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Spline Coefficients

Value at Risk (VaR) estimates the maximum loss at a given confidence level. Expected Shortfall (ES) estimates the average loss beyond VaR.

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Param	Value	t-stat
ωconst	0.1252	1.40
αARCH	0.0448	5.81***
βGARCH	0.9330	174.07***
γleverage	0.0445	4.32***

Parameter	Value	t-statistic
ω const Unconditional variance weight	0.1252	1.40
α ARCH Response to squared shocks	0.0448	5.81***
β GARCH Volatility persistence	0.9330	174.07***
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks	0.0445	4.32***

V-Lab

AES Corp/VA Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Date Range:

News Impact Curve

Illiquidity Forecast

Parameter Estimates

Other AES Corp/VA Analyses