Ford Motor Co Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026
1 Day
29.58
increased by 0.10
1 Week
30.14
increased by 0.66
1 Month
30.72
increased by 1.24
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 01:37 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 509 trading days (~2.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 271% more after negative returns
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~509 daysAsymmetry: Illiquidity rises 271% more after negative returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.1044 | 1.57 |
| αARCH | 0.0238 | 5.39*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9426 | 282.15*** |
| γleverage | 0.0644 | 8.96*** |
0.999
Persistence509d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1044 | 1.57 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0238 | 5.39*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9426 | 282.15*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0644 | 8.96*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
509 days
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