V-Lab
Caterpillar Inc Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
8.59
1 Week
9.01
1 Month
9.07
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:24 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 15068 trading days (~59.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 227% more after negative returns
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0555 | 7.60*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0216 | 21.85*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9538 | 1,190.77*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0491 | 30.41*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
15068 days
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