V-Lab
Caterpillar Inc Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
9.17
1 Week
9.01
1 Month
9.09
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 10:29 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 20691 trading days (~82.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 227% more after negative returns
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0548 | 7.56*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0216 | 21.97*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9538 | 1,190.77*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0491 | 30.49*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
20691 days
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