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Caterpillar Inc Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

8.59

decreased by 0.08

1 Week

9.01

increased by 0.34

1 Month

9.07

increased by 0.40

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:24 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Caterpillar Inc ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 15068 trading days (~59.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 227% more after negative returns

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0555
7.60***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0216
21.85***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9538
1,190.77***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0491
30.41***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

15068 days