V-Lab
Caterpillar Inc Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
8.74
1 Week
9.00
1 Month
8.77
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 10:39 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 231049 trading days (~916.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 223% more after negative returns
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0522 | 1.82* |
| αARCH | 0.0218 | 5.56*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9538 | 298.17*** |
| γleverage | 0.0486 | 7.57*** |
1.000
Persistence231049d
Half-lifeILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0522 | 1.82* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0218 | 5.56*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9538 | 298.17*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0486 | 7.57*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
231049 days
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