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Caterpillar Inc Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026

1 Day

9.05

decreased by 0.29

1 Week

8.61

decreased by 0.73

1 Month

8.61

decreased by 0.73

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 01:21 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/09/2024

to

10/09/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Caterpillar Inc ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): illiquidity shocks do not decay and the long-run level is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.

Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 220% more after negative returns

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000 ≥ 1, shocks do not decayAsymmetry: Illiquidity rises 220% more after negative returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0511
1.82*
αARCH0.0219
5.62***
βGARCH0.9539
298.75***
γleverage0.0483
7.57***

1.000

Persistence

-

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0511
1.82*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0219
5.62***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9539
298.75***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0483
7.57***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

-