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Caterpillar Inc Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026

1 Day

8.74

decreased by 0.12

1 Week

9.00

increased by 0.14

1 Month

8.77

decreased by 0.09

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 10:39 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Caterpillar Inc ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 231049 trading days (~916.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 223% more after negative returns

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~231049 daysAsymmetry: Illiquidity rises 223% more after negative returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0522
1.82*
αARCH0.0218
5.56***
βGARCH0.9538
298.17***
γleverage0.0486
7.57***

1.000

Persistence

231049d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0522
1.82*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0218
5.56***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9538
298.17***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0486
7.57***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

231049 days