PepsiCo Inc Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026
1 Day
9.35
decreased by 0.10
1 Week
9.36
decreased by 0.09
1 Month
8.57
decreased by 0.88
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 09:33 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 30, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1385 trading days (~5.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 97% more after negative returns
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~1385 daysAsymmetry: Illiquidity rises 97% more after negative returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0323 | 1.40 |
| αARCH | 0.0308 | 6.31*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9536 | 280.72*** |
| γleverage | 0.0301 | 3.18*** |
0.999
Persistence1385d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0323 | 1.40 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0308 | 6.31*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9536 | 280.72*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0301 | 3.18*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
1385 days
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