MasterCard Inc Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Liquidity prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
8.77
1 Week
8.62
1 Month
8.54
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:46 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 25, 2006 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 183% more after negative returns
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0456 | 7.56*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0281 | 15.47*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9462 | 683.64*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0514 | 14.59*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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