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MasterCard Inc Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Liquidity prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026

1 Day

8.77

decreased by 0.25

1 Week

8.62

decreased by 0.40

1 Month

8.54

decreased by 0.48

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:46 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of MasterCard Inc ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's liquidity

Liquidity Forecast

How liquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 25, 2006 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 183% more after negative returns

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0456
7.56***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0281
15.47***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9462
683.64***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0514
14.59***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1386294 days