V-Lab
MasterCard Inc ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
7.08
1 Week
6.78
1 Month
7.30
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 10:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 25, 2006 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 12 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 12 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 56 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0571 | 3.60*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9138 | 75.03*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0552 | -0.95 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0116 | 2.30** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9879 | 114.41*** |
Persistence:
0.943
Half-life:
12 days
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