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MasterCard Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026

1 Day

5.96

increased by 0.72

1 Week

5.46

increased by 0.22

1 Month

5.32

increased by 0.08

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 01:57 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/09/2024

to

10/09/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of MasterCard Inc ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 25, 2006 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 36 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.1300
16.15***
αARCH0.0554
8.52***
βGARCH0.9254
125.08***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0040
-3.84***

0.981

Persistence

36d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.1300
16.15***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0554
8.52***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9254
125.08***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0040
-3.84***

Persistence:

0.981

Half-life:

36 days