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V-Lab

MasterCard Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026

1 Day

5.59

decreased by 0.03

1 Week

5.81

increased by 0.19

1 Month

6.08

increased by 0.46

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 28, 2026 at 10:42 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of MasterCard Inc ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 25, 2006 to Aug 28, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 35 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.1235
16.11***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0557
8.56***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9249
124.35***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0041
-3.90***

Persistence:

0.981

Half-life:

35 days