V-Lab
MasterCard Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
5.18
decreased by 0.30
1 Week
5.55
increased by 0.07
1 Month
5.74
increased by 0.26
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 11:37 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 25, 2006 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 36 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.1225 | 16.10*** |
| αARCH | 0.0557 | 8.56*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9250 | 124.52*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0042 | -3.95*** |
0.981
Persistence36d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.1225 | 16.10*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0557 | 8.56*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9250 | 124.52*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0042 | -3.95*** |
Persistence:
0.981
Half-life:
36 days
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