V-Lab
MasterCard Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
6.81
increased by 0.55
1 Week
6.53
increased by 0.27
1 Month
7.03
increased by 0.77
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 10:48 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 25, 2006 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 36 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.1242 | 16.05*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0561 | 8.58*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9247 | 124.25*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0041 | -3.83*** |
Persistence:
0.981
Half-life:
36 days
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