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MasterCard Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

5.18

decreased by 0.30

1 Week

5.55

increased by 0.07

1 Month

5.74

increased by 0.26

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 11:37 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of MasterCard Inc ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 25, 2006 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 36 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.1225
16.10***
αARCH0.0557
8.56***
βGARCH0.9250
124.52***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0042
-3.95***

0.981

Persistence

36d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.1225
16.10***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0557
8.56***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9250
124.52***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0042
-3.95***

Persistence:

0.981

Half-life:

36 days