MasterCard Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026
1 Day
5.96
increased by 0.72
1 Week
5.46
increased by 0.22
1 Month
5.32
increased by 0.08
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 01:57 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 25, 2006 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 36 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.1300 | 16.15*** |
| αARCH | 0.0554 | 8.52*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9254 | 125.08*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0040 | -3.84*** |
0.981
Persistence36d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.1300 | 16.15*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0554 | 8.52*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9254 | 125.08*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0040 | -3.84*** |
Persistence:
0.981
Half-life:
36 days
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