V-Lab
MasterCard Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026
1 Day
5.59
decreased by 0.03
1 Week
5.81
increased by 0.19
1 Month
6.08
increased by 0.46
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 28, 2026 at 10:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 25, 2006 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 35 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.1235 | 16.11*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0557 | 8.56*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9249 | 124.35*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0041 | -3.90*** |
Persistence:
0.981
Half-life:
35 days
Other MasterCard Inc Analyses
Other Spline ILLIQ Analyses on Equities