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V-Lab

MasterCard Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

6.81

increased by 0.55

1 Week

6.53

increased by 0.27

1 Month

7.03

increased by 0.77

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 10:48 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of MasterCard Inc ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 25, 2006 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 36 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.1242
16.05***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0561
8.58***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9247
124.25***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0041
-3.83***

Persistence:

0.981

Half-life:

36 days