Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

MasterCard Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026

1 Day

5.27

decreased by 0.25

1 Week

5.31

decreased by 0.21

1 Month

5.37

decreased by 0.15

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 10:24 PM UTC

Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
Date Range:

from

10/30/2024

to

10/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of MasterCard Inc ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 25, 2006 to Oct 30, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 36 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.1236
16.19***
αARCH0.0545
8.46***
βGARCH0.9265
126.17***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0041
-3.96***

0.981

Persistence

36d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.1236
16.19***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0545
8.46***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9265
126.17***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0041
-3.96***

Persistence:

0.981

Half-life:

36 days