Microsoft Corp ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
1.14
1 Week
1.11
1 Month
1.11
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:29 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 9 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 9 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 61 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0541 | 2.51** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8947 | 338.53*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0541 | -0.97 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0053 | 3.56*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.2378 | 19.19*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.7575 | 5.85*** |
Persistence:
0.922
Half-life:
9 days
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