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V-Lab

Microsoft Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026

1 Day

1.07

decreased by 0.04

1 Week

1.13

increased by 0.02

1 Month

1.14

increased by 0.03

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 10:04 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Microsoft Corp ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 292 trading days (~1.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9840
7.89***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0528
14.67***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9448
254.26***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0018
-2.58***

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

292 days