Neostellar Capital Corp ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Thursday, July 23rd, 2026
1 Day
11,110.78
1 Week
8,954.13
1 Month
7,391.17
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 22, 2026 at 09:16 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 28, 2011 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 120 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1607 | 13.67*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8413 | 370.80*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0157 | -0.75 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 1.8298 | 6.01*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.02 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9996 | 1,604.46*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
120 days
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