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ExxonMobil Holdings Corp ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026
1 Day
5.59
1 Week
5.75
1 Month
6.00
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 28, 2026 at 11:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0452 | 8.89*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8970 | 65.20*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0452 | -1.62 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0070 | 1.97** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0269 | 6.36*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9720 | 226.79*** |
Persistence:
0.920
Half-life:
8 days
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