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ExxonMobil Holdings Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

5.74

decreased by 0.21

1 Week

5.83

decreased by 0.12

1 Month

5.79

decreased by 0.16

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 11:54 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ExxonMobil Holdings Corp ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 658 trading days (~2.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~658 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.0023
9.05***
αARCH0.0366
12.06***
βGARCH0.9623
313.97***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0003
-0.29

0.999

Persistence

658d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0023
9.05***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0366
12.06***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9623
313.97***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0003
-0.29

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

658 days