V-Lab
ExxonMobil Holdings Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
6.04
increased by 0.06
1 Week
5.76
decreased by 0.22
1 Month
5.76
decreased by 0.22
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 11:09 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 657 trading days (~2.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0027 | 9.03*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0368 | 12.08*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9621 | 312.27*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0002 | -0.26 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
657 days
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