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ExxonMobil Holdings Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, October 22nd, 2026

1 Day

5.12

decreased by 0.17

1 Week

5.37

increased by 0.08

1 Month

5.35

increased by 0.06

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 21, 2026 at 09:48 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/21/2024

to

10/21/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ExxonMobil Holdings Corp ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 657 trading days (~2.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~657 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.0022
9.04***
αARCH0.0366
12.08***
βGARCH0.9623
314.18***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0003
-0.32

0.999

Persistence

657d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0022
9.04***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0366
12.08***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9623
314.18***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0003
-0.32

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

657 days