ExxonMobil Holdings Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, October 22nd, 2026
1 Day
5.12
decreased by 0.17
1 Week
5.37
increased by 0.08
1 Month
5.35
increased by 0.06
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 21, 2026 at 09:48 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 657 trading days (~2.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~657 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0022 | 9.04*** |
| αARCH | 0.0366 | 12.08*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9623 | 314.18*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0003 | -0.32 |
0.999
Persistence657d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0022 | 9.04*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0366 | 12.08*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9623 | 314.18*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0003 | -0.32 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
657 days
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