How volatility evolves over time

How illiquidity evolves over time

{name} Model Equation

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Spline Coefficients

Value at Risk (VaR) estimates the maximum loss at a given confidence level. Expected Shortfall (ES) estimates the average loss beyond VaR.

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Param	Value	t-stat
mwindow	66
αARCH	0.0421	8.97***
βGARCH	0.9097	86.55***
γleverage	-0.0421	-1.16
λ₁tau intercept	0.0517	1.26
λ₂forecast adj.	0.2607	7.18***
λ₃tau persistence	0.7335	19.81***

Parameter	Value	t-statistic
m window Rolling window length	66
α ARCH Response to squared shocks	0.0421	8.97***
β GARCH Volatility persistence	0.9097	86.55***
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks	-0.0421	-1.16
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient	0.0517	1.26
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity	0.2607	7.18***
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence	0.7335	19.81***

V-Lab

Chevron Corp ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis

Date Range:

News Impact Curve

Illiquidity Forecast

Parameter Estimates

Other Chevron Corp Analyses