V-Lab
Merck & Co Inc Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
10.36
decreased by 0.11
1 Week
10.62
increased by 0.15
1 Month
12.15
increased by 1.68
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 10:22 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 2353 trading days (~9.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 175% more after negative returns
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0285 | 4.86*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0212 | 21.41*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9599 | 1,254.78*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0372 | 22.16*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
2353 days
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