V-Lab
Merck & Co Inc Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, September 1st, 2026
1 Day
10.59
decreased by 0.27
1 Week
10.42
decreased by 0.44
1 Month
10.32
decreased by 0.54
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 1, 2026 at 09:51 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 2254 trading days (~8.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 175% more after negative returns
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0290 | 1.24 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0211 | 5.35*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9600 | 314.45*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0371 | 5.54*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
2254 days
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