Merck & Co Inc Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
13.65
decreased by 0.18
1 Week
13.40
decreased by 0.43
1 Month
12.20
decreased by 1.63
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:50 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 2221 trading days (~8.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 174% more after negative returns
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0282 | 5.00*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0213 | 21.40*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9599 | 1,251.44*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0371 | 22.06*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
2221 days
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