V-Lab
Merck & Co Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
10.17
decreased by 0.24
1 Week
10.27
decreased by 0.14
1 Month
11.89
increased by 1.48
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 10:22 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 401 trading days (~1.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0577 | 11.48*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0422 | 12.53*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9560 | 279.54*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0020 | -2.28** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
401 days
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