V-Lab
Merck & Co Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, September 1st, 2026
1 Day
10.26
decreased by 0.35
1 Week
10.46
decreased by 0.15
1 Month
10.34
decreased by 0.27
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 1, 2026 at 09:51 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 407 trading days (~1.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0572 | 11.48*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0421 | 12.54*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9562 | 280.83*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0019 | -2.21** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
407 days
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