Realpha Tech Corp Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, November 13th, 2026
1 Day
698,517.30
1 Week
728,314.36
1 Month
1,277,564.64
Analysis last updated: Friday, November 13, 2026 at 03:16 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 23, 2023 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 5.0000 | 0.01 |
| αARCH | 0.2148 | 4.62*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7621 | 41.96*** |
| γleverage | 0.0463 | 0.62 |
1.000
Persistence1386294d
Half-lifeILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.01 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2148 | 4.62*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7621 | 41.96*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0463 | 0.62 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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