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Realpha Tech Corp Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

429,273.90

decreased by 144,254.20

1 Week

572,518.64

decreased by 1,009.46

1 Month

748,887.71

increased by 175,359.61

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 09:33 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Realpha Tech Corp ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 23, 2023 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): illiquidity shocks do not decay and the long-run level is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.

Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 32% more after negative returns

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
0.05
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2226
18.24***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7421
111.96***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0705
2.96***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

-