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Realpha Tech Corp Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Friday, November 13th, 2026

1 Day

698,517.30

increased by 55,498.70

1 Week

728,314.36

increased by 85,295.76

1 Month

1,277,564.64

increased by 634,546.04

Analysis last updated: Friday, November 13, 2026 at 03:16 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/12/2024

to

11/12/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Realpha Tech Corp ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 23, 2023 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~1386294 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst5.0000
0.01
αARCH0.2148
4.62***
βGARCH0.7621
41.96***
γleverage0.0463
0.62

1.000

Persistence

1386294d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
0.01
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2148
4.62***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7621
41.96***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0463
0.62

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1386294 days