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Realpha Tech Corp Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026

1 Day

720,864.50

decreased by 109,638.20

1 Week

912,688.22

increased by 82,185.52

1 Month

782,895.94

decreased by 47,606.76

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 09:54 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Realpha Tech Corp ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 23, 2023 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): illiquidity shocks do not decay and the long-run level is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.

Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 34% more after negative returns

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
0.04
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2224
18.01***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7400
110.48***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0752
3.10***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

-