V-Lab
Realpha Tech Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 4th, 2026
1 Day
916,691.80
increased by 243,948.40
1 Week
776,386.50
increased by 103,643.10
1 Month
874,649.18
increased by 201,905.78
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 3, 2026 at 09:17 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 23, 2023 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 6 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2801 | 1.63 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2650 | 7.24*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6284 | 14.48*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | 13.6921 | 1.20 |
| γ2 | -22.4878 | -1.47 |
| γ3 | 15.2517 | 2.06** |
| γ4 | -23.2917 | -2.60*** |
| γ5 | 45.2343 | 3.36*** |
| γ6 | -48.1406 | -2.29** |
Persistence:
0.893
Half-life:
6 days
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