V-Lab
Realpha Tech Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
537,440.90
decreased by 160,205.60
1 Week
700,223.62
increased by 2,577.12
1 Month
900,370.77
increased by 202,724.27
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 09:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 23, 2023 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 115524 trading days (~458.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3664 | 0.13 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2967 | 0.03 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7033 | 0.07 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.4433 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
115524 days
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