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Realpha Tech Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Friday, November 13th, 2026

1 Day

861,536.70

increased by 44,356.40

1 Week

894,381.30

increased by 77,201.00

1 Month

1,448,485.02

increased by 631,304.72

Analysis last updated: Friday, November 13, 2026 at 03:16 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/12/2024

to

11/12/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Realpha Tech Corp ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 23, 2023 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 86643 trading days (~343.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

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High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~86643 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.3178
0.28
αARCH0.2791
0.07
βGARCH0.7208
0.19
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.2645
0.00

1.000

Persistence

86643d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.3178
0.28
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2791
0.07
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7208
0.19
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.2645
0.00

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

86643 days