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Realpha Tech Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026

1 Day

560,777.80

decreased by 75,247.40

1 Week

630,684.42

decreased by 5,340.78

1 Month

660,794.36

increased by 24,769.16

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 10:17 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/02/2024

to

10/02/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Realpha Tech Corp ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 23, 2023 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 99021 trading days (~392.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~99021 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.3456
0.17
αARCH0.2978
0.04
βGARCH0.7022
0.09
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.2022
0.00

1.000

Persistence

99021d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.3456
0.17
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2978
0.04
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7022
0.09
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.2022
0.00

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

99021 days