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V-Lab

Realpha Tech Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 4th, 2026

1 Day

916,691.80

increased by 243,948.40

1 Week

776,386.50

increased by 103,643.10

1 Month

874,649.18

increased by 201,905.78

Analysis last updated: Monday, August 3, 2026 at 09:17 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Realpha Tech Corp ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 23, 2023 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 6 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2801
1.63
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2650
7.24***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6284
14.48***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=6
γ113.6921
1.20
γ2-22.4878
-1.47
γ315.2517
2.06**
γ4-23.2917
-2.60***
γ545.2343
3.36***
γ6-48.1406
-2.29**

Persistence:

0.893

Half-life:

6 days