Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

Realpha Tech Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

891,750.90

decreased by 94,832.30

1 Week

996,188.22

increased by 9,605.02

1 Month

644,847.00

decreased by 341,736.20

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 10:29 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Realpha Tech Corp ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 23, 2023 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 86643 trading days (~343.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~86643 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.3624
0.18
αARCH0.2985
0.04
βGARCH0.7015
0.09
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.4322
0.00

1.000

Persistence

86643d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.3624
0.18
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2985
0.04
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7015
0.09
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.4322
0.00

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

86643 days