V-Lab
Realpha Tech Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
891,750.90
decreased by 94,832.30
1 Week
996,188.22
increased by 9,605.02
1 Month
644,847.00
decreased by 341,736.20
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 10:29 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 23, 2023 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 86643 trading days (~343.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~86643 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.3624 | 0.18 |
| αARCH | 0.2985 | 0.04 |
| βGARCH | 0.7015 | 0.09 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.4322 | 0.00 |
1.000
Persistence86643d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3624 | 0.18 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2985 | 0.04 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7015 | 0.09 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.4322 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
86643 days
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