Pasqal Holding SA Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026
1 Day
21,269.62
increased by 38.11
1 Week
20,154.88
decreased by 1,076.63
1 Month
15,359.98
decreased by 5,871.53
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 09:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 8, 2026 to Oct 30, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 2166 trading days (~8.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~2166 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0242 | 0.05 |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.9997 | 0.26 |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | -1,481.1162 | -0.27 |
| γ2 | 1,968.3197 | 1.27 |
| γ3 | -657.4121 | -0.78 |
| γ4 | 335.3756 | 0.43 |
| γ5 | -244.5614 | -0.47 |
| γ6 | 85.9901 | 0.18 |
| γ7 | 24.1655 | 0.08 |
1.000
Persistence2166d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0242 | 0.05 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9997 | 0.26 |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | -1,481.1162 | -0.27 |
| γ2 | 1,968.3197 | 1.27 |
| γ3 | -657.4121 | -0.78 |
| γ4 | 335.3756 | 0.43 |
| γ5 | -244.5614 | -0.47 |
| γ6 | 85.9901 | 0.18 |
| γ7 | 24.1655 | 0.08 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
2166 days
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