Pasqal Holding SA Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
11,147.90
increased by 2,161.29
1 Week
12,618.82
increased by 3,632.21
1 Month
11,071.61
increased by 2,085.00
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 10:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 8, 2026 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 155 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~155 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0218 | 2.50** |
| αARCH | 0.6008 | 4.68*** |
| βGARCH | 0.3948 | 3.16*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | -2,184.2897 | -3.76*** |
| γ2 | 3,056.1545 | 3.74*** |
| γ3 | -1,192.6295 | -3.31*** |
| γ4 | 514.8895 | 1.93* |
| γ5 | -218.5667 | -0.75 |
| γ6 | -35.1582 | -0.13 |
| γ7 | 23.1594 | 0.12 |
0.996
Persistence155d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0218 | 2.50** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.6008 | 4.68*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3948 | 3.16*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | -2,184.2897 | -3.76*** |
| γ2 | 3,056.1545 | 3.74*** |
| γ3 | -1,192.6295 | -3.31*** |
| γ4 | 514.8895 | 1.93* |
| γ5 | -218.5667 | -0.75 |
| γ6 | -35.1582 | -0.13 |
| γ7 | 23.1594 | 0.12 |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
155 days
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