V-Lab
Pasqal Holding SA Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026
1 Day
20,924.55
increased by 60.67
1 Week
17,315.53
decreased by 3,548.35
1 Month
8,486.73
decreased by 12,377.15
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 30, 2026 at 03:26 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 8, 2026 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1242 trading days (~4.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0147 | 0.04 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9994 | 0.21 |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | -2,575.5779 | -0.18 |
| γ2 | 3,404.5276 | 0.74 |
| γ3 | -1,114.6883 | -0.42 |
| γ4 | 450.3828 | 0.23 |
| γ5 | -88.9313 | -0.07 |
| γ6 | -257.5428 | -0.28 |
| γ7 | 427.7420 | 0.56 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
1242 days
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