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Pasqal Holding SA Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

11,147.90

increased by 2,161.29

1 Week

12,618.82

increased by 3,632.21

1 Month

11,071.61

increased by 2,085.00

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 10:31 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/16/2024

to

10/16/2026

6M ·

All

graph of Pasqal Holding SA ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 8, 2026 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 155 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~155 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0218
2.50**
αARCH0.6008
4.68***
βGARCH0.3948
3.16***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=7
γ1-2,184.2897
-3.76***
γ23,056.1545
3.74***
γ3-1,192.6295
-3.31***
γ4514.8895
1.93*
γ5-218.5667
-0.75
γ6-35.1582
-0.13
γ723.1594
0.12

0.996

Persistence

155d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0218
2.50**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.6008
4.68***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.3948
3.16***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=7
γ1-2,184.2897
-3.76***
γ23,056.1545
3.74***
γ3-1,192.6295
-3.31***
γ4514.8895
1.93*
γ5-218.5667
-0.75
γ6-35.1582
-0.13
γ723.1594
0.12

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

155 days