V-Lab
Pasqal Holding SA Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
15,267.15
increased by 43.25
1 Week
14,540.41
decreased by 683.49
1 Month
11,491.74
decreased by 3,732.16
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 10:47 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 8, 2026 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1191 trading days (~4.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~1191 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0154 | 0.06 |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.9994 | 0.32 |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | -2,234.5874 | -0.24 |
| γ2 | 3,058.9606 | 0.92 |
| γ3 | -1,184.0932 | -0.64 |
| γ4 | 628.8650 | 0.51 |
| γ5 | -358.4136 | -0.45 |
| γ6 | 95.0084 | 0.17 |
| γ7 | 18.0357 | 0.04 |
0.999
Persistence1191d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0154 | 0.06 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9994 | 0.32 |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | -2,234.5874 | -0.24 |
| γ2 | 3,058.9606 | 0.92 |
| γ3 | -1,184.0932 | -0.64 |
| γ4 | 628.8650 | 0.51 |
| γ5 | -358.4136 | -0.45 |
| γ6 | 95.0084 | 0.17 |
| γ7 | 18.0357 | 0.04 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
1191 days
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