Pasqal Holding SA Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026
1 Day
5,927.07
unchanged at 0.00
1 Week
6,300.09
increased by 373.02
1 Month
8,383.36
increased by 2,456.29
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 12:41 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 8, 2026 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 7 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0301 | 2.91*** |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.9029 | 4.78*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -969.0099 | -3.38*** |
| γ2 | 1,214.3362 | 2.66*** |
| γ3 | -205.1192 | -0.83 |
| γ4 | -27.3682 | -0.22 |
| γ5 | -24.0896 | -0.27 |
| γ6 | -43.7614 | -0.42 |
0.903
Persistence7d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0301 | 2.91*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9029 | 4.78*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -969.0099 | -3.38*** |
| γ2 | 1,214.3362 | 2.66*** |
| γ3 | -205.1192 | -0.83 |
| γ4 | -27.3682 | -0.22 |
| γ5 | -24.0896 | -0.27 |
| γ6 | -43.7614 | -0.42 |
Persistence:
0.903
Half-life:
7 days
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