How volatility evolves over time

How illiquidity evolves over time

{name} Model Equation

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Spline Coefficients

Value at Risk (VaR) estimates the maximum loss at a given confidence level. Expected Shortfall (ES) estimates the average loss beyond VaR.

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Param	Value	t-stat
mwindow	31
αARCH	0.0717	8.60***
βGARCH	0.8443	50.92***
γleverage	-0.0717	-2.45**
λ₁tau intercept	0.0847	0.22
λ₂forecast adj.	0.3040	3.94***
λ₃tau persistence	0.6960	9.05***

Parameter	Value	t-statistic
m window Rolling window length	31
α ARCH Response to squared shocks	0.0717	8.60***
β GARCH Volatility persistence	0.8443	50.92***
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks	-0.0717	-2.45**
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient	0.0847	0.22
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity	0.3040	3.94***
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence	0.6960	9.05***

V-Lab

AES Corp/VA ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis

Date Range:

News Impact Curve

Illiquidity Forecast

Parameter Estimates

Other AES Corp/VA Analyses