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Wal-Mart Stores Inc Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, October 13th, 2026

1 Day

4.81

increased by 0.07

1 Week

4.76

increased by 0.02

1 Month

4.71

decreased by 0.03

Analysis last updated: Monday, October 12, 2026 at 09:39 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/12/2024

to

10/12/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Wal-Mart Stores Inc ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 792 trading days (~3.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 115% more after negative returns

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~792 daysAsymmetry: Illiquidity rises 115% more after negative returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0217
2.01**
αARCH0.0222
5.47***
βGARCH0.9641
335.46***
γleverage0.0255
3.77***

0.999

Persistence

792d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0217
2.01**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0222
5.47***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9641
335.46***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0255
3.77***

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

792 days